BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green-winged Teal In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Green-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-winged Teal has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Green-winged Teal In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 74% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.07–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 74% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.07–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.570.051.1
20270.570.051.1
20280.580.061.1
20290.580.061.1
20300.590.071.1

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA112025
TenneyMINNESOTA92014
Sun RiverMONTANA92024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA72023
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA72024
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA71980
Hay LakeMONTANA62019
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA62024
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA62019
GlasgowMONTANA51982
WhitlashMONTANA52017
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA52024
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA52008
TracyMINNESOTA42017
WestbyMONTANA42024
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA42014
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA42009
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA42025
ClevelandMONTANA32023
RedstoneMONTANA32013
ShelbyMONTANA32019
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA31980
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA32024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA32015
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.