BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Jay In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Green Jay in Oaks and Prairies has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

+62%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Jay has risen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

Green Jay In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Jay in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Jay in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19952030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.000.45
20270.190.000.45
20280.200.000.45
20290.200.000.45
20300.200.000.46

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Green Jay in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS42025
FanninTEXAS32025
HobsonTEXAS22024
BriteTEXAS22018
CampbelltonTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.