BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Green Heron in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.710.002.8
20260.640.002.8
20270.570.002.7
20280.490.002.6
20290.420.002.5

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Green Heron in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holey LandFLORIDA202024
TamiamiFLORIDA101974
BrowardFLORIDA91973
ShawanoFLORIDA92002
ClewistonFLORIDA92023
Mt. OliveFLORIDA92009
AndytownFLORIDA81998
St LucieFLORIDA82024
Devils GardnFLORIDA82024
Boca RatonFLORIDA61994
Pennywash CrFLORIDA62024
Weaver StnFLORIDA62019
PinecrestFLORIDA52024
Winter GardnFLORIDA52018
DeanvilleFLORIDA42019
Dale MabryFLORIDA31988
ScottsmoorFLORIDA32024
Sunniland GrFLORIDA32021
SalvistaFLORIDA31979
Plantation KFLORIDA32004
Key LargoFLORIDA31991
Key WestFLORIDA31987
AripekaFLORIDA32016
Punta GordaFLORIDA32013
Card SoundFLORIDA32014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.