BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Green Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Green Heron In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.11–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.11–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.150.63
20260.380.140.62
20270.370.130.61
20280.360.120.60
20290.350.110.59

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Green Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilmingtonDELAWARE62012
Bethany BchDELAWARE61990
HongaMARYLAND62024
Bennett MillNEW-JERSEY61976
IndiantownMARYLAND52014
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY51977
SpraguetownNEW-JERSEY51983
GranbyCONNECTICUT42016
GeorgetownDELAWARE42021
MadisonMARYLAND42024
CokesburyMARYLAND42024
Milton 2DELAWARE32017
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND32016
Grove NeckMARYLAND31996
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS32011
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY31991
Port RoyalVIRGINIA32019
WarrenCONNECTICUT22010
Long HillCONNECTICUT21990
HarringtonDELAWARE22024
FredericaDELAWARE22014
BlackbirdDELAWARE22024
Kittery PtMAINE21985
JonesMARYLAND21992
BeltsvilleMARYLAND22008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.