BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Green Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
317Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.071.1
20260.550.051.1
20270.540.031.0
20280.520.011.0
20290.500.001.0

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Green Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA142024
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA101981
BackbayVIRGINIA81974
MaconMISSISSIPPI72024
GrandyNORTH-CAROLINA71975
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA61999
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA52011
Port St JoeFLORIDA52011
Olive BranchMISSISSIPPI52001
Okatibbee L.MISSISSIPPI52008
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA42019
Oak GroveFLORIDA42011
Miller XrdsFLORIDA42018
LovedaleFLORIDA42011
KellerGEORGIA41993
PoplarvilleMISSISSIPPI41978
DuffeeMISSISSIPPI42001
FontainbleauMISSISSIPPI41977
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA42024
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA41979
HowardALABAMA32019
CalebeeALABAMA32023
GuytonGEORGIA31989
LyonsGEORGIA31992
NewtonGEORGIA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.