BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Green Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
317Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Green Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.051.1
20270.540.041.0
20280.520.021.0
20290.500.001.0
20300.480.000.98

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Green Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA112025
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA101981
HumboldtTENNESSEE82025
BackbayVIRGINIA81974
GrandyNORTH-CAROLINA71975
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA61999
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA52011
Port St JoeFLORIDA52011
Olive BranchMISSISSIPPI52001
Okatibbee L.MISSISSIPPI52008
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA42019
Oak GroveFLORIDA42011
Miller XrdsFLORIDA42018
LovedaleFLORIDA42011
WadleyGEORGIA42025
KellerGEORGIA41993
OusleyGEORGIA42025
PoplarvilleMISSISSIPPI41978
DuffeeMISSISSIPPI42001
FontainbleauMISSISSIPPI41977
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA42025
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA41979
GuytonGEORGIA31989
LyonsGEORGIA31992
NewtonGEORGIA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.