BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Green Heron in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Green Heron In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.470.001.2
20270.450.001.1
20280.420.001.1
20290.400.001.1
20300.380.001.1

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Green Heron in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbanyTEXAS52025
HearneTEXAS52025
MuldoonTEXAS42024
Oak GroveTEXAS41999
BurtonTEXAS42024
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA31977
Lone OakTEXAS32021
WeatherfordTEXAS32025
SeldenTEXAS32024
Blue RidgeTEXAS32023
Wills PointTEXAS32016
Gambill Ref.TEXAS32025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA22024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS22023
LockhartTEXAS22022
Miller GroveTEXAS22017
CarlosTEXAS22025
Mount ZionTEXAS22024
YoakumTEXAS22025
CreedmoreTEXAS22014
BrucevilleTEXAS22024
PaigeTEXAS22021
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12025
LocoOKLAHOMA11984
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.