BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Green Heron in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-49%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Green Heron In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 0.85 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 0.85 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.001.2
20260.450.001.2
20270.430.001.1
20280.410.001.1
20290.380.001.1

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Green Heron in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MuldoonTEXAS42024
Oak GroveTEXAS41999
BurtonTEXAS42024
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA31977
Lone OakTEXAS32021
Massey LakeTEXAS32023
OlaTEXAS32023
SeldenTEXAS32024
CarlosTEXAS32024
Blue RidgeTEXAS32023
Wills PointTEXAS32016
CleburneTEXAS32024
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA22006
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA22024
NobleOKLAHOMA22022
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA22004
HobsonTEXAS22024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS22023
LockhartTEXAS22022
Miller GroveTEXAS22017
HearneTEXAS22024
CayugaTEXAS22023
Mount ZionTEXAS22024
CreedmoreTEXAS22014
BrucevilleTEXAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.