BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWetland birds

Green Heron in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±140.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.08
20250.000.000.08
20260.000.000.08
20270.000.000.08
20280.000.000.08

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Green Heron in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS42005
WestbrookMAINE21989
BrooksMAINE21977
CharlestonMAINE21991
CambridgeMAINE22001
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE21995
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE21995
DannemoraNEW-YORK21976
SciotaNEW-YORK22006
W RutlandVERMONT22015
New HartfordCONNECTICUT11985
NewcastleMAINE11993
TurnerMAINE11991
South ArmMAINE11975
Otisfield GrMAINE11986
HartfordMAINE12004
Bowdoin CtrMAINE11986
ManchesterMAINE11982
East TroyMAINE11994
HarmonyMAINE11990
HermonMAINE11981
EastbrookMAINE11979
MedwayMAINE12000
Forest StaMAINE11968
WashburnMAINE11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.