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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Sage-Grouse Population Trend in Utah

All statesGame birds

Greater Sage-Grouse in Utah has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-81%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Sage-Grouse Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Sage-Grouse has collapsed in Utah: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Greater Sage-Grouse Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Utah is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±177.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Utah is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.57
20270.000.000.57
20280.000.000.57
20290.000.000.57
20300.000.000.57

Greater Sage-Grouse Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Greater Sage-Grouse in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E. Bear Lake2920252000
M Warner Res620132005
Ant Flat-Ogden Can620241996
Saleratus Cr520181995
Randolph520131994
Grouse Creek519871987
Willow Creek419981986
Vernon420092000
Neponset Res320181997
Lost Cr. Res220122000
Vernal220182005
Moon Lake 2120192004
Altonah119821969
Crawford Mts120172006
Moon Lake120032000
Dixie Nf120162016
Alton120102007
Heber Mtn.120232013
Bonanza119961996

Greater Sage-Grouse Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.