BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Sage-Grouse Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Greater Sage-Grouse in Utah has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-92%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Sage-Grouse Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Sage-Grouse has collapsed in Utah: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Greater Sage-Grouse Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±233%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±233%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±233%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.56
20250.000.000.56
20260.000.000.56
20270.000.000.56
20280.000.000.56

Greater Sage-Grouse Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Greater Sage-Grouse in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
M Warner Res620132005
Saleratus Cr520181995
Randolph520131994
Grouse Creek519871987
Willow Creek419981986
Vernon420092000
Neponset Res320181997
E. Bear Lake320192000
Lost Cr. Res220122000
Vernal220182005
Ant Flat-Ogden Can220231996
Moon Lake 2120192004
Altonah119821969
Crawford Mts120172006
Moon Lake120032000
Dixie Nf120162016
Alton120102007
Heber Mtn.120232013
Bonanza119961996

Greater Sage-Grouse Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.