BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

-28%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great-tailed Grackle in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Great-tailed Grackle In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.10
20260.020.000.10
20270.020.000.10
20280.020.000.10
20290.020.000.10

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CassvilleMISSOURI62013
CentertonARKANSAS42011
SyracuseMISSOURI41996
PinevilleMISSOURI22014
ReedsMISSOURI22012
CentertownMISSOURI21997
Osage BeachMISSOURI22007
DiamondMISSOURI22024
AvocaARKANSAS12009
SwedenMISSOURI12009
HandleyMISSOURI11997
GraydonMISSOURI12017
HaydenMISSOURI12007
MarshfieldMISSOURI12003
BaronOKLAHOMA11993
ColcordOKLAHOMA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.