BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Oaks and Prairies has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great-tailed Grackle in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Great-tailed Grackle In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 0.02–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 0.02–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.80.4313
20266.70.3313
20276.60.2313
20286.50.1213
20296.40.0213

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS532024
GauseTEXAS501997
HenriettaTEXAS492022
BriteTEXAS402024
DallasTEXAS312024
BeggsOKLAHOMA272023
ThorntonTEXAS231984
RhomeTEXAS212024
CreedmoreTEXAS212014
ComancheTEXAS182024
Lone OakTEXAS162022
Gambill Ref.TEXAS151995
WeatherfordTEXAS142024
CayugaTEXAS132018
Thornton 2TEXAS122010
College StnTEXAS111990
HearneTEXAS102023
CampbelltonTEXAS82024
Oak GroveTEXAS81988
WalburgTEXAS82024
TatumsOKLAHOMA72018
YoakumTEXAS72022
Mount ZionTEXAS62024
SeldenTEXAS52018
HobsonTEXAS42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.