BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great-tailed Grackle In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Great-tailed Grackle in Oaks and Prairies has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great-tailed Grackle in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Great-tailed Grackle In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.50.1713
20276.40.0613
20286.30.0013
20296.20.0012
20306.10.0012

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BriteTEXAS812025
GauseTEXAS501997
HenriettaTEXAS492022
DallasTEXAS302025
BeggsOKLAHOMA272023
ThorntonTEXAS231984
CreedmoreTEXAS212014
ComancheTEXAS182024
HobsonTEXAS162025
Lone OakTEXAS162022
Gambill Ref.TEXAS151995
CayugaTEXAS132018
Thornton 2TEXAS122010
College StnTEXAS111990
MegargelTEXAS112025
LockhartTEXAS102025
WeatherfordTEXAS102025
HearneTEXAS102023
Mount ZionTEXAS102025
CampbelltonTEXAS82024
Oak GroveTEXAS81988
RhomeTEXAS82025
TatumsOKLAHOMA72018
YoakumTEXAS72022
CleburneTEXAS62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.