BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 607% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+607%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 607% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Great-tailed Grackle In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.006.8
20262.80.006.8
20272.90.006.8
20282.90.006.8
20292.90.006.9

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManorTEXAS712024
LeanderTEXAS312006
GeorgetownTEXAS181985
PidcokeTEXAS152014
BoerneTEXAS122010
Allen CreekTEXAS52001
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS42022
FitzhughTEXAS21983
HarperTEXAS22018
AdamsvilleTEXAS21973
MontellTEXAS22016
UtopiaTEXAS12007
Valley SpgsTEXAS12013
San SabaTEXAS11994
KempnerTEXAS12017
Dripping SpgTEXAS12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.