BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+109%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.004.9
20262.00.004.9
20272.00.004.9
20282.00.004.9
20292.00.004.9

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CookietownOKLAHOMA4222006
HawleyTEXAS472024
JetOKLAHOMA342016
ChildressTEXAS342023
WeinertTEXAS311994
HaskellTEXAS212024
LeovilleKANSAS172013
St JohnKANSAS142017
Beaver CreekTEXAS142024
WilliamsTEXAS142023
ReedOKLAHOMA122016
WallTEXAS122019
EldoradoTEXAS92012
DaltonKANSAS82005
KanopolisKANSAS82007
GoveKANSAS82002
RotanTEXAS82024
WellingtonKANSAS72024
BookerTEXAS72008
MinneapolisKANSAS62009
CovertKANSAS62014
StrattonNEBRASKA62019
GrimesOKLAHOMA62002
CoopertonOKLAHOMA62021
HollisOKLAHOMA62023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.