BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Kiskadee Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Kiskadee in Texas has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+148%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Kiskadee Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Kiskadee has surged in Texas: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Kiskadee Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Great Kiskadee in Texas is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.19–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Kiskadee in Texas is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.19–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.170.54
20260.360.180.55
20270.370.180.56
20280.370.190.56
20290.380.190.57

Great Kiskadee Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Great Kiskadee in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 21720242010
Three Rivers1320242011
Raymondville1020241972
Lag Atascosa920241973
Loyola Beach820091994
Kingsville720241977
Rachal520231981
Zapata519871967
Progreso520111994
Sejita520241994
Agua Nueva420191973
Cavasara Cr.420122007
Guerra420231988
El Sauz420231995
Campbellton320182010
Goliad Prairie220072007
Catarina220061970
Hondo220232006
Encinal 2220232015
Catarina 3220222018
Heidelberg220242013
Petronila120222016
Randado120191988
Mirando City120242008
Encinal120102000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.