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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Kiskadee Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Kiskadee in Texas has surged: up 182% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+182%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Kiskadee Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Kiskadee has surged in Texas: up 182% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Kiskadee Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Great Kiskadee in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.39 (95% range 0.20–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Kiskadee in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.39 (95% range 0.20–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.370.180.55
20270.370.190.56
20280.380.190.56
20290.380.200.57
20300.390.200.57

Great Kiskadee Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Great Kiskadee in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lag Atascosa1220251973
Loyola Beach 21220252010
Raymondville1220251972
Three Rivers1020252011
Loyola Beach820091994
Kingsville720241977
Cavasara Cr.620252007
Rachal520231981
Zapata519871967
Progreso520111994
Sejita520241994
Agua Nueva420191973
El Sauz420231995
Campbellton320182010
Dilley320252025
Goliad Prairie220072007
George West220252011
Catarina220061970
Encinal 2220232015
Heidelberg220242013
Petronila120252016
Randado120251988
Mirando City120242008
Encinal120102000
San Ygnacio119851967

Great Kiskadee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.