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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Horned Owl In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Birds of prey

Great Horned Owl in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-57%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Great Horned Owl In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.45
20270.060.000.45
20280.060.000.44
20290.050.000.43
20300.040.000.43

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SlanaALASKA22019
MonahanALASKA22016
L SalchaALASKA22019
Kenny LakeALASKA22019
Burma RoadALASKA22010
Kanuti CanynALASKA22024
Manley Ht SpALASKA22018
Mud RiverALASKA22024
DeltaALASKA22024
EagleALASKA12014
CircleALASKA12017
Birch LakeALASKA12011
LivengoodALASKA12019
Tower BluffsALASKA12025
ChistochinaALASKA12008
NorthwayALASKA12024
CantwellALASKA12019
Goose BayALASKA11975
Skilak LakeALASKA11984
KalifonskyALASKA12013
Chena RiverALASKA11988
SourdoughALASKA12023
TonsinaALASKA12017
Bear CreekALASKA11991
Hatcher PassALASKA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.