BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Appalachian Mountains has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
216Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±191.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.10
20260.050.000.10
20270.040.000.10
20280.040.000.10
20290.040.000.10

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt OliveALABAMA52001
New MarketVIRGINIA51996
JeromeVIRGINIA41997
DoverNEW-JERSEY32001
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA32006
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA32015
ClimerTENNESSEE31996
CornponeTENNESSEE32017
MonticelloKENTUCKY22001
KehoeKENTUCKY21992
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY22008
SmithsburgMARYLAND22004
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY22017
MeridaleNEW-YORK22024
LaurensNEW-YORK21997
CoventryvileNEW-YORK21988
OxfordNEW-YORK21970
S VandaliaNEW-YORK22006
HendersonvilNORTH-CAROLINA22016
SmithfieldOHIO22023
DellOHIO21993
Scioto FurnOHIO21997
OdinPENNSYLVANIA21996
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA22009
Cherry SprsPENNSYLVANIA21984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.