BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Edwards Plateau has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-75%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has collapsed in Edwards Plateau: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 277% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+277%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 277% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.001.0
20260.250.001.0
20270.250.001.0
20280.240.001.0
20290.230.000.99

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarperTEXAS31989
KempnerTEXAS32006
RockspringTEXAS32005
AdamsvilleTEXAS22014
BoerneTEXAS12023
UtopiaTEXAS12022
FitzhughTEXAS11980
Valley SpgsTEXAS12024
San SabaTEXAS12017
PidcokeTEXAS12013
Indian MtnTEXAS11996
Dripping SpgTEXAS12023
LeanderTEXAS11993
LeakeyTEXAS12004
MontellTEXAS12016
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12016
Allen CreekTEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.