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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Horned Owl In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauBirds of prey

Great Horned Owl in Edwards Plateau has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-80%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has collapsed in Edwards Plateau: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Great Horned Owl In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.001.0
20270.250.001.00
20280.240.000.99
20290.230.000.99
20300.230.000.98

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarperTEXAS31989
KempnerTEXAS32006
RockspringTEXAS32005
AdamsvilleTEXAS22014
Dripping SpgTEXAS22025
BoerneTEXAS12023
UtopiaTEXAS12022
FitzhughTEXAS11980
Valley SpgsTEXAS12025
San SabaTEXAS12025
PidcokeTEXAS12013
Indian MtnTEXAS11996
LeanderTEXAS11993
LeakeyTEXAS12004
MontellTEXAS12016
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12016
Allen CreekTEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.