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Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-6%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.04–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.04–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.030.69
20260.360.040.69
20270.360.040.69
20280.360.040.69
20290.370.040.69

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO81997
BriggsdaleCOLORADO52024
KiowaCOLORADO32018
Prospect ValCOLORADO32000
HaswellCOLORADO32011
UlyssesKANSAS32022
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA32024
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA32023
RankinTEXAS31997
PinneoCOLORADO22018
Two ButtesCOLORADO22015
TrincheraCOLORADO22021
KirkCOLORADO22023
NeegrandeCOLORADO22019
EdlerCOLORADO22010
FlaglerCOLORADO22022
KarvalCOLORADO22018
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO22023
RuletonKANSAS22018
PepNEW-MEXICO22023
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO22024
HookerOKLAHOMA22017
TenmileTEXAS22005
MidlandTEXAS22016
FlemingCOLORADO12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.