BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-58%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.47
20260.230.000.47
20270.230.000.46
20280.220.000.46
20290.220.000.46

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA42021
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA32018
KanawhaIOWA22022
TitonkaIOWA22008
ChokioMINNESOTA22008
FairmontMINNESOTA22021
WorthingtonMINNESOTA22006
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA22022
LockhartMINNESOTA22007
ClevelandMONTANA22017
SacoMONTANA22021
WestbyMONTANA22023
WinsideNEBRASKA22002
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA22024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA22021
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA21980
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22016
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA22021
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA22022
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA22022
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA22019
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA22012
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA22021
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA22022
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.