BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Great Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+100%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Egret In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 0.00–54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 0.00–54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026240.0054
2027240.0054
2028240.0054
2029240.0054
2030240.0054

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Great Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MauriceLOUISIANA1492024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA1222021
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA1071982
RichardLOUISIANA1032025
CreoleLOUISIANA691987
StowellTEXAS582025
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA552011
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA522019
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA412025
Bayside 2TEXAS322004
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS292024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA272019
JuniorLOUISIANA261991
VanderbiltTEXAS261970
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA252017
Port AcresTEXAS212025
DanburyTEXAS202025
HackberryLOUISIANA182016
EstherLOUISIANA182025
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA162025
Moon LakeTEXAS162011
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS162025
KaplanLOUISIANA122023
Forked IslandLOUISIANA112025
BaysideTEXAS112010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.