BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Great Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+125%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 0.00–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 0.00–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025240.0054
2026240.0054
2027240.0055
2028240.0055
2029240.0055

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Great Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MauriceLOUISIANA1492024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA1222021
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA1071982
CreoleLOUISIANA691987
RichardLOUISIANA662024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA552011
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA522019
EstherLOUISIANA372024
Bayside 2TEXAS322004
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS292024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA272019
JuniorLOUISIANA261991
VanderbiltTEXAS261970
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA252017
DanburyTEXAS252024
ChinquapinTEXAS252024
Moon Lake 2TEXAS232024
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA222024
StowellTEXAS192023
HackberryLOUISIANA182016
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS172023
Moon LakeTEXAS162011
Forked IslandLOUISIANA132024
KaplanLOUISIANA122023
BaysideTEXAS112010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.