BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Great Egret in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has risen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Egret In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 119% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.07–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±279.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+119%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±279.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 119% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.07–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±279.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.051.0
20270.540.061.0
20280.550.061.0
20290.550.071.0
20300.560.071.0

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Great Egret in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO111995
GlenwoodMINNESOTA92019
AshbyMINNESOTA62021
New BuffaloMICHIGAN52008
OsseoMINNESOTA52025
Omro 2WISCONSIN42025
No BradleyMICHIGAN32025
MillvilleMINNESOTA31976
New LondonMINNESOTA32014
KingswayOHIO32006
VickeryOHIO32017
Fall RiverWISCONSIN32024
Rolling PrWISCONSIN32025
ParisWISCONSIN32023
KielWISCONSIN32025
LagrangeINDIANA22002
Indiana DuneINDIANA22025
St CharlesMICHIGAN22019
GraytownOHIO21982
LimestoneOHIO22024
CochraneWISCONSIN22013
ViroquaWISCONSIN21978
Beaver DamWISCONSIN21997
GuilfordILLINOIS12017
Cherry Val 2ILLINOIS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.