BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Great Egret in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 760% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+760%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 760% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Great Egret In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 557% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.01–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±362.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+557%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±362.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 557% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.01–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±362.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.000.88
20260.440.000.89
20270.450.000.90
20280.450.000.90
20290.460.010.91

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Great Egret in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashingtonIOWA192008
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA122017
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA112016
DawsonMINNESOTA61989
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA52014
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA42022
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA42010
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA42023
FairmontMINNESOTA32017
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA32024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA32009
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA32007
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA21999
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA22005
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
KanawhaIOWA12016
ZearingIOWA11990
ScrantonIOWA11978
HartlandMINNESOTA12009
ArlingtonMINNESOTA11994
MaynardMINNESOTA11998
AppletonMINNESOTA12017
GluekMINNESOTA12019
ChokioMINNESOTA12024
GlyndonMINNESOTA12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.