BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Great Egret in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 215% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+215%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Great Egret In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 305% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±342.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+305%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±342.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 305% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±342.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.410.000.86
20270.420.000.87
20280.420.000.88
20290.430.000.88
20300.440.000.89

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Great Egret in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashingtonIOWA192008
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA122017
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA112016
DawsonMINNESOTA61989
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA52014
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA42022
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA42023
FairmontMINNESOTA32017
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA32009
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA32007
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA22025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22025
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA21999
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA22005
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA22025
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
KanawhaIOWA12016
ZearingIOWA11990
ScrantonIOWA11978
HartlandMINNESOTA12009
ArlingtonMINNESOTA11994
MaynardMINNESOTA11998
AppletonMINNESOTA12017
GluekMINNESOTA12019
ChokioMINNESOTA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.