BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.001.1
20260.430.001.0
20270.410.001.0
20280.390.000.99
20290.370.000.97

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YrekaCALIFORNIA72019
GlasgowOREGON72024
IlwacoWASHINGTON72024
SvensenOREGON61992
SkagwayALASKA52024
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA52019
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA42022
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA42010
DerbyOREGON41993
YakutatALASKA32003
Mitkof IsleALASKA32008
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA32021
UmpquaOREGON32023
WedderburnOREGON32024
Elk LakeOREGON32019
Emigrant LkOREGON32001
IssaquahWASHINGTON31984
Juneau AltALASKA21986
KetchikanALASKA22022
ZaremboALASKA22021
Wrangell (Short)ALASKA21984
HoneydewCALIFORNIA22016
Lonesome RdgCALIFORNIA22014
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA22021
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA22012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.