BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.450.001.0
20270.430.001.0
20280.410.001.0
20290.390.000.98
20300.370.000.96

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IlwacoWASHINGTON162025
ScappooseOREGON82025
YrekaCALIFORNIA72019
SvensenOREGON61992
SkagwayALASKA52024
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA52019
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA42022
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA42010
DerbyOREGON41993
YakutatALASKA32003
Mitkof IsleALASKA32008
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA32021
Emigrant LkOREGON32001
SalemOREGON32025
IssaquahWASHINGTON31984
Juneau AltALASKA21986
KetchikanALASKA22022
Zimovia StrtALASKA22025
ZaremboALASKA22021
Wrangell (Short)ALASKA21984
HoneydewCALIFORNIA22016
Lonesome RdgCALIFORNIA22014
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA22021
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA22012
SaladoOREGON22016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.