BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
327Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 71% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.88–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 71% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.88–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.832.0
20261.40.842.0
20271.40.852.0
20281.50.872.1
20291.50.882.1

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaconMISSISSIPPI242024
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA152019
Alabama PtALABAMA132003
Dauphin IsALABAMA111990
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA112011
DouglasGEORGIA81984
Lake MaryMISSISSIPPI71990
CorinthMISSISSIPPI62024
DillonSOUTH-CAROLINA62021
MansfieldTENNESSEE62024
BillingsleyALABAMA52022
Dauphin Is 3ALABAMA52021
DeepstepGEORGIA52023
FolkstonGEORGIA52022
AberdeenMISSISSIPPI52024
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA52017
OlusteeFLORIDA41998
Thornton RoadGEORGIA42019
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI42016
HumboldtTENNESSEE42024
LibertyALABAMA32022
RiderwoodALABAMA32017
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA32019
AutaugavilleALABAMA32008
Sprott-Cahaba RivALABAMA32014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.