BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Edwards Plateau has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-40%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.000.86
20260.370.000.85
20270.360.000.85
20280.350.000.84
20290.340.000.83

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManorTEXAS42024
HarperTEXAS32024
AdamsvilleTEXAS22024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS22024
LeakeyTEXAS22001
BoerneTEXAS12018
UtopiaTEXAS12022
GeorgetownTEXAS11980
FitzhughTEXAS11982
Valley SpgsTEXAS12019
San SabaTEXAS12014
PidcokeTEXAS12014
KempnerTEXAS12023
Indian MtnTEXAS12004
Dripping SpgTEXAS12022
LeanderTEXAS12006
MontellTEXAS12021
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.