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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Atlantic Northern Forest has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.12–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.12–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.120.59
20260.350.120.59
20270.350.120.59
20280.350.120.59
20290.360.120.59

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE71995
WanakenaNEW-YORK62024
SabattisNEW-YORK51983
GabrielsNEW-YORK42018
Brownfield 2MAINE32017
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE32022
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK32016
S ReadingVERMONT32019
FletcherVERMONT32024
WatervilleVERMONT31979
GreenwoodMAINE22021
East TroyMAINE22019
HarmonyMAINE22017
HancockMAINE22024
DebloisMAINE22007
CarrabassettMAINE22007
Seboomook LkMAINE21999
CambridgeMAINE22010
WytopitlockMAINE21982
MedwayMAINE22016
Pillsbury PdMAINE21968
Horse MtnMAINE21990
AshlandMAINE21999
St DavidMAINE21992
RomeMAINE22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.