BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Black-backed Gull In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Great Black-backed Gull in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+137%Since 1968
55Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Great Black-backed Gull has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Black-backed Gull in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 208% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.04–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±274.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+208%Change by 2029
0.97Projected 2029 index
0.04–1.995% range
±274.9%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.940.011.9
20260.950.021.9
20270.960.031.9
20280.960.031.9
20290.970.041.9

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Great Black-backed Gull in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND832010
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND231989
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS221983
WesthamptonNEW-YORK132018
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY122024
Kittery PtMAINE92024
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY82011
Jones BeachNEW-YORK72013
BerlinMARYLAND42005
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS42023
Bethany BchDELAWARE31990
MiltonDELAWARE31977
MelitotaMARYLAND32004
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS31989
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE31983
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE31989
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY31991
HuntingtonNEW-YORK32023
MysticCONNECTICUT22023
HarringtonDELAWARE22017
PepperboxDELAWARE22005
MatthewsMARYLAND22001
NewarkMARYLAND22024
SinepuxentMARYLAND21974
MarionMASSACHUSETTS22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.