BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Partridge In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Gray Partridge in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+146%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Partridge has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Partridge In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Partridge in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Partridge in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.001.6
20260.410.001.6
20270.400.001.6
20280.390.001.5
20290.370.001.5

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Gray Partridge in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA111984
GarnerIOWA81990
TracyMINNESOTA82004
GlentanaMONTANA72024
RedstoneMONTANA62024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA61986
GlasgowMONTANA52024
Wolf PointMONTANA52024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA51995
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA52024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA52007
ZearingIOWA41994
MaynardMINNESOTA42012
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA42005
VirgelleMONTANA42024
WhitlashMONTANA42022
LambertMONTANA42024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA42024
BurchinalIOWA32015
BeltramiMINNESOTA31980
WylieMINNESOTA32024
OswegoMONTANA32023
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32009
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA32023
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA32013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.