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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Kingbird Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Gray Kingbird in Florida has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Kingbird Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Kingbird has collapsed in Florida: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Kingbird Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Gray Kingbird in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±161.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Kingbird in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.37
20270.030.000.36
20280.020.000.35
20290.010.000.34
20300.000.000.33

Gray Kingbird Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Gray Kingbird in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Key Largo2119911987
Key West1719871987
Sugarloaf Key1120041999
Sugarloaf Key 2720212005
Plantation K720041967
Pinelands320211990
Card Sound320211998
Holey Land220232023
Betts219941994
Alligator Pt220251987
Weaver Stn220152006
Ft Waltn Bch120111967
Punta Gorda120041981
Flamingo120251983
Port St Joe120041994
Steinhatchee120251967
Ft Gadsden119871972
Merritt Isl120111994
Scottsmoor120082008
St Vincent I120022002
Indiantown119871984
Boca Raton119901968
Redlands120222012
Santa Rosa119921988
Shawano119991989

Gray Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabama

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.