BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Kingbird In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Gray Kingbird in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Kingbird has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Kingbird In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Kingbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.05 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Kingbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.05 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.61
20250.020.000.59
20260.000.000.57
20270.000.000.57
20280.000.000.57

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Gray Kingbird in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Key LargoFLORIDA211991
Key WestFLORIDA171987
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA112004
Plantation KFLORIDA72004
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA72021
Card SoundFLORIDA32021
PinelandsFLORIDA32021
Weaver StnFLORIDA22015
Holey LandFLORIDA22023
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12008
IndiantownFLORIDA11987
Boca RatonFLORIDA11990
ShawanoFLORIDA11999
DavieFLORIDA12017
KendallFLORIDA11991
HomesteadFLORIDA12021
AripekaFLORIDA11996
Punta GordaFLORIDA12004
FlamingoFLORIDA12017
RedlandsFLORIDA12022
Merritt IslFLORIDA12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.