BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch in Alaska has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-92%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch has collapsed in Alaska: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±756.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2021TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2021 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±756.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±756.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832021
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20170.000.000.48
20180.000.000.48
20190.000.000.48
20200.000.000.48
20210.000.000.48

Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hyder519941994
Lake Louise420072007
Chiniak220062006
Adak220011983
Cold Bay (Short)119841984
Skagway119941993
Chichagof Is120162016
Thorne Bay119891989

Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch Population Trend in Other States

montanawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.