BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Gray Catbird in Appalachian Mountains has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
403Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has risen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 15 (95% range 13–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 15 (95% range 13–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026141216
2027141316
2028141316
2029151316
2030151316

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JenningsMARYLAND732025
BloomsburyNEW-JERSEY702025
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY632024
Wild CreekPENNSYLVANIA622025
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA592025
WallerPENNSYLVANIA562025
DrydenNEW-YORK522025
Pine Gr MillPENNSYLVANIA522025
WilliamsportMARYLAND512025
HopeNEW-JERSEY511994
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA482025
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA472025
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA472025
Lost RiverWEST-VIRGINIA472025
Mt HopeNEW-YORK442010
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA412025
BerwickPENNSYLVANIA402025
DoverNEW-JERSEY392023
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA392024
WaterstreetPENNSYLVANIA392024
N WashingtonPENNSYLVANIA382025
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA382025
DresdenOHIO372025
StonecreekOHIO372025
RamseyPENNSYLVANIA372025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.