BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Gray Catbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+115%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
276Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.4 (95% range 5.5–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.4 (95% range 5.5–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.15.36.9
20276.25.47.0
20286.25.47.1
20296.35.57.1
20306.45.57.2

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Terre HauteILLINOIS322025
SheffieldILLINOIS282024
BelleviewILLINOIS272025
Red RockIOWA272025
McfallMISSOURI252025
LucerneMISSOURI242025
EmdenMISSOURI242024
MarionOHIO242023
CaledoniaILLINOIS232025
Kahoka2MISSOURI232024
EubanksILLINOIS222025
StillwellILLINOIS202025
Mt HamillIOWA202025
MelroseILLINOIS191999
Marion 2OHIO192025
River FallsWISCONSIN192025
BedfordIOWA182025
FultonOHIO172025
Portage 2INDIANA162025
HudsonIOWA162025
WayneILLINOIS152025
AthensvilleILLINOIS152025
RensselaerMISSOURI152025
FriendswoodINDIANA142024
WallaceINDIANA142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.