BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+110%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
276Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.3 (95% range 5.4–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.3 (95% range 5.4–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.05.26.8
20266.15.36.9
20276.15.37.0
20286.25.47.0
20296.35.47.1

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockIOWA332024
BelleviewILLINOIS312024
SheffieldILLINOIS282024
LucerneMISSOURI242021
EmdenMISSOURI242024
MarionOHIO242023
Kahoka2MISSOURI232024
River FallsWISCONSIN232024
College Spgs 2IOWA212023
Terre HauteILLINOIS202024
MaquoketaIOWA202024
MelroseILLINOIS191999
BedfordIOWA192018
New HamptonMISSOURI182024
AuburnMISSOURI182024
LafayetteIOWA172024
GalvestonINDIANA152024
Marion 2OHIO152024
Mill CreekILLINOIS142024
AldenILLINOIS142023
FriendswoodINDIANA142024
WallaceINDIANA142024
ExlineIOWA142024
West LibertyIOWA142024
BloomvilleOHIO142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.