BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.91–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.91–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.91–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.873.3
20262.10.883.3
20272.10.893.3
20282.10.903.3
20292.10.913.3

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarmonyMARYLAND462017
CokesburyMARYLAND232024
QuinbyVIRGINIA192024
MillingtonMARYLAND132024
MillsboroDELAWARE122024
EastonMARYLAND112021
MardelaMARYLAND102019
NewarkMARYLAND102024
Mt PleasantDELAWARE72019
Pt RepublicMARYLAND61989
HughesvilleMARYLAND62024
WalnutMARYLAND62024
FredericaDELAWARE52014
BlackbirdDELAWARE52024
Holleyville 2DELAWARE52024
Piney NeckMARYLAND52024
HongaMARYLAND52024
Pr FrederickMARYLAND52024
FrankfordDELAWARE42012
MiltonDELAWARE42016
PepperboxDELAWARE42008
Tall TimbersMARYLAND42014
MelitotaMARYLAND42024
Forest GroveMARYLAND42023
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.