BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-31%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 84% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±205.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+84%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±205.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 84% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±205.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.010.26
20260.130.010.26
20270.130.010.26
20280.140.010.26
20290.140.010.26

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WadleyGEORGIA61979
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA52017
LacrossGEORGIA41992
HamletNORTH-CAROLINA41998
BranchvilleVIRGINIA42017
SouthALABAMA32003
RowlandNORTH-CAROLINA32024
CottontonALABAMA21980
WhitehouseALABAMA22007
WhitehallALABAMA21994
HawkinsvilleGEORGIA21984
ShilohKENTUCKY22023
AberdeenMISSISSIPPI21993
FairmontNORTH-CAROLINA21969
PinetopsNORTH-CAROLINA22024
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA22024
Lake SurfNORTH-CAROLINA22004
RaefordNORTH-CAROLINA22008
WagenerSOUTH-CAROLINA21979
SweetlipsTENNESSEE22017
NewsomsVIRGINIA22024
St FlorianALABAMA12010
BillingsleyALABAMA12005
FairviewALABAMA11992
TelogiaFLORIDA11969

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.