BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Edwards Plateau has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+7%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.580.002.4
20260.560.002.4
20270.550.002.4
20280.530.002.4
20290.520.002.4

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AdamsvilleTEXAS62023
UtopiaTEXAS32003
HarperTEXAS32023
San SabaTEXAS32024
ManorTEXAS32023
Valley SpgsTEXAS22024
KempnerTEXAS22019
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS22023
BoerneTEXAS12017
GeorgetownTEXAS11967
FitzhughTEXAS11983
PidcokeTEXAS12016
Dripping SpgTEXAS12001
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12024
LeanderTEXAS11996
LeakeyTEXAS11996
MontellTEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.