BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.5 (95% range 2.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.5 (95% range 2.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.63.012
20267.63.012
20277.62.912
20287.62.912
20297.52.912

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA712024
Ester LakeMONTANA682024
SacoMONTANA432024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA431983
RedstoneMONTANA422024
SpartaNEBRASKA412021
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA402023
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA362011
LambertMONTANA332024
MidwayNEBRASKA232023
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA222014
ChandlerMINNESOTA212023
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA202024
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA202023
OswegoMONTANA192024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA142024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA132024
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA132010
GlasgowMONTANA112024
Wolf PointMONTANA112024
ZearingIOWA101995
BeltramiMINNESOTA102024
Great FallsMONTANA102024
ChinookMONTANA102024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.