BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grasshopper Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Grasshopper Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.5 (95% range 2.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.5 (95% range 2.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.63.012
20277.63.012
20287.62.912
20297.52.912
20307.52.912

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ester LakeMONTANA472025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA462025
SpartaNEBRASKA452025
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA431983
SacoMONTANA422025
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA402023
LambertMONTANA372025
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA362011
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA302025
RedstoneMONTANA282025
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA262023
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA222025
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA222014
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA202025
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA202023
MidwayNEBRASKA192025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA192025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA182025
WestbyMONTANA172025
OswegoMONTANA142025
ChinookMONTANA142025
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA132010
ChandlerMINNESOTA112025
Wolf PointMONTANA112024
ZearingIOWA101995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.