BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-cheeked Warbler In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Golden-cheeked Warbler in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 295% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+295%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-cheeked Warbler has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 295% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-cheeked Warbler in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 452% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+452%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-cheeked Warbler in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 452% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.002.0
20260.990.002.1
20271.00.002.1
20281.00.002.1
20291.00.002.1

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Golden-cheeked Warbler in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeakeyTEXAS82023
Indian MtnTEXAS32024
Dripping SpgTEXAS32023
UtopiaTEXAS22022
PidcokeTEXAS22009
MontellTEXAS22013
Allen CreekTEXAS22023
BoerneTEXAS11967
FitzhughTEXAS11971
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12016
RockspringTEXAS12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.