BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Glossy Ibis In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Glossy Ibis in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Glossy Ibis has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Glossy Ibis In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Glossy Ibis in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±258.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±258.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Glossy Ibis in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±258.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.14
20260.000.000.14
20270.000.000.14
20280.000.000.14
20290.000.000.14

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Glossy Ibis in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cross CityFLORIDA152019
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA112018
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA61986
Big OakGEORGIA52024
Alligator PtFLORIDA41997
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA31993
CaytonNORTH-CAROLINA32016
MiccosukeeFLORIDA22019
St Vincent IFLORIDA22019
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA22015
CornlandVIRGINIA21995
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA12009
BelmontFLORIDA12019
LovedaleFLORIDA11988
DarienGEORGIA12019
NewtonGEORGIA12024
Thornton RoadGEORGIA12024
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA11988
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA12023
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA11978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.