BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Glossy Ibis In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Glossy Ibis in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Glossy Ibis has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Glossy Ibis in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±258.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±258.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Glossy Ibis in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±258.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.14
20260.000.000.14
20270.000.000.14
20280.000.000.14
20290.000.000.14

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Glossy Ibis in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cross CityFLORIDA152019
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA112018
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA61986
Big OakGEORGIA52024
Alligator PtFLORIDA41997
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA31993
CaytonNORTH-CAROLINA32016
MiccosukeeFLORIDA22019
St Vincent IFLORIDA22019
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA22015
CornlandVIRGINIA21995
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA12009
BelmontFLORIDA12019
LovedaleFLORIDA11988
DarienGEORGIA12019
NewtonGEORGIA12024
Thornton RoadGEORGIA12024
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA11988
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA12023
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA11978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.