BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gadwall In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Gadwall in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+104%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gadwall has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gadwall In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 4.9–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 4.9–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.44.514
20279.54.614
20289.64.715
20299.74.815
20309.84.915

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Gadwall in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA1172025
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA312021
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA302025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA262025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA252025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA232023
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA222025
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA212024
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA212024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA212011
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA192019
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA192010
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA182025
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA182025
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA172025
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA172014
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA172009
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA161983
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA132025
SunburstMONTANA122007
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA122023
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA122025
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA112025
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA112025
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA112023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.