BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gadwall In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Gadwall in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+137%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gadwall has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gadwall In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 5.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 5.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.64.714
20269.74.915
20279.85.015
20289.95.115
2029105.215

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Gadwall in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA512024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA412024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA362024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA332024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA322022
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA312021
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA262024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA262024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA262024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA252024
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA232024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA232023
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA212024
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA212024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA212011
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA192024
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA192019
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA192010
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA172014
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA172024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA172009
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA172024
WestbyMONTANA162024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA161983
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.