BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gadwall In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Gadwall in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+137%Since 1969
92Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Gadwall has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 5.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029
10Projected 2029 index
5.2–1595% range
±32.8%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20259.64.714
20269.74.915
20279.85.015
20289.95.115
2029105.215

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Gadwall in Prairie Potholes.
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA512024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA412024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA362024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA332024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA322022
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA312021
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA262024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA262024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA262024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA252024
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA232024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA232023
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA212024
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA212024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA212011
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA192024
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA192019
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA192010
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA172014
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA172024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA172009
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA172024
WestbyMONTANA162024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA161983
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.