BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Franklin's Gull In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Franklin's Gull in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+161%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Franklin's Gull has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Franklin's Gull In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Franklin's Gull in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Franklin's Gull in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026110.0024
2027110.0024
2028110.0024
2029110.0024
2030110.0024

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Franklin's Gull in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA8042025
ChinookMONTANA5012025
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA4882017
VirgelleMONTANA2172025
AppletonMINNESOTA1471984
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA1192025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA1142025
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA1002007
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA1002023
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA992003
MaltaMONTANA802021
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA702023
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA642025
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA602024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA501969
GluekMINNESOTA401973
ChokioMINNESOTA402021
Great FallsMONTANA372024
ClevelandMONTANA352025
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA352009
WylieMINNESOTA342009
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA312025
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA282018
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA262009
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA262007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.