BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Franklin's Gull In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Franklin's Gull in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+85%Since 1969
86Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Franklin's Gull has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Franklin's Gull in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029
9.9Projected 2029 index
0.00–2295% range
±35%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20259.80.0022
20269.90.0022
20279.90.0022
20289.90.0022
20299.90.0022

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Franklin's Gull in Prairie Potholes.
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA8722024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA4882017
VirgelleMONTANA3692024
AppletonMINNESOTA1471984
Ester LakeMONTANA1282024
Sun RiverMONTANA1022024
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA1002007
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA1002023
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA992003
MaltaMONTANA802021
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA782023
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA702023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA602024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA602024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA552024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA532024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA501969
GluekMINNESOTA401973
ChokioMINNESOTA402021
Great FallsMONTANA372024
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA352009
WylieMINNESOTA342009
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA282018
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA262009
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA262007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.