BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forster's Tern In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Forster's Tern in Peninsular Florida has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+34%Since 1973
9Routes In Region
22Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Forster's Tern in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forster's Tern in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029
0.12Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.4995% range
±108.3%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.130.000.50
20260.120.000.50
20270.120.000.50
20280.120.000.50
20290.120.000.49

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Forster's Tern in Peninsular Florida.
ScottsmoorFLORIDA122024
MabelFLORIDA81998
St AugustineFLORIDA22021
ChildsFLORIDA11988
AripekaFLORIDA12004
CroomFLORIDA11998
Merritt IslFLORIDA12003
Ridge HarborFLORIDA12002
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.