BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forster's Tern In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Forster's Tern in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 276% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+276%Since 1968
31Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Forster's Tern has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 276% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forster's Tern in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 138% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.09–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±223.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+138%Change by 2029
0.44Projected 2029 index
0.09–0.7895% range
±223.1%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.410.070.76
20260.420.080.77
20270.430.080.77
20280.430.090.78
20290.440.090.78

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Forster's Tern in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY111991
Ocean CityNEW-JERSEY82024
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY72014
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY72013
White StoneVIRGINIA71996
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE52024
Golden HillMARYLAND52006
Bethany BchDELAWARE41989
PepperboxDELAWARE42016
VillasNEW-JERSEY41981
HuntingtonNEW-YORK42023
SharpsVIRGINIA41999
QuinbyVIRGINIA31983
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE21991
PomfretMARYLAND21974
EastonMARYLAND22013
MadisonMARYLAND22021
FruitlandMARYLAND21985
CokesburyMARYLAND22015
NewarkMARYLAND22018
WinslowNEW-JERSEY22000
HarringtonDELAWARE12023
DoverDELAWARE11966
FrankfordDELAWARE12006
BlackbirdDELAWARE12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.