BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Field Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
157Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.002.8
20260.000.002.8
20270.000.002.8
20280.000.002.8
20290.000.002.8

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Field Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BlackbirdDELAWARE172024
Pt RepublicMARYLAND141989
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE121991
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND102024
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY102012
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY102024
La PlataMARYLAND92009
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY92009
VillasNEW-JERSEY91981
HughesvilleMARYLAND82024
Snow HillMARYLAND81976
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY81977
TruhartVIRGINIA82024
MillsboroDELAWARE72024
Holleyville 2DELAWARE72024
CheltenhamMARYLAND72004
Piney NeckMARYLAND72024
NewarkMARYLAND72024
CranburyNEW-JERSEY72023
HolleyvilleDELAWARE62004
HarmonyMARYLAND62017
Forest GroveMARYLAND62023
WalnutMARYLAND62024
Woodbury HgtNEW-JERSEY62024
WalkersVIRGINIA62023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.