BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Field Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.90.007.2
20262.80.007.1
20272.70.007.0
20282.60.006.9
20292.50.006.8

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TatumsOKLAHOMA282024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA262024
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA261977
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA232009
SkiatookOKLAHOMA182019
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA142024
BonnerTEXAS141994
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA102018
NobleOKLAHOMA82024
DuncanOKLAHOMA72024
LocoOKLAHOMA61985
HeyburnOKLAHOMA62024
CampbelltonTEXAS61972
OsageTEXAS42009
ChoctawOKLAHOMA32022
LockhartTEXAS32024
Oak GroveTEXAS31986
OlneyTEXAS32023
BriteTEXAS32021
Gambill Ref.TEXAS31995
DecaturTEXAS31999
SeldenTEXAS22011
GrafordTEXAS22013
LydiaTEXAS22012
Miller GroveTEXAS22007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.