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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Field Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.7–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.7–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.52.66.5
20264.62.66.6
20274.62.66.6
20284.72.76.6
20294.72.76.7

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BradyNEBRASKA412024
PhrosoOKLAHOMA292024
ArapahoOKLAHOMA242014
RosstonOKLAHOMA232018
GrimesOKLAHOMA222024
CashionOKLAHOMA192024
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA171994
WoodwardOKLAHOMA162024
EldoradoTEXAS142023
Piester LakeNEBRASKA132015
ChesterOKLAHOMA131988
ClarendonTEXAS132024
NenzelNEBRASKA122024
VerdenOKLAHOMA122017
AlmeriaNEBRASKA112021
Swan LakeNEBRASKA92023
HollisOKLAHOMA92024
ColonyOKLAHOMA91995
St JohnKANSAS82019
Ash ValleyKANSAS82019
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA82024
HendleyNEBRASKA82024
ElginOKLAHOMA82016
CoatsKANSAS72024
ColdwaterKANSAS72022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.