BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ferruginous Hawk In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Ferruginous Hawk in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+60%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ferruginous Hawk has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ferruginous Hawk In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.37 (95% range 0.16–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.37 (95% range 0.16–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.150.57
20260.360.150.58
20270.370.150.58
20280.370.150.58
20290.370.160.59

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Ferruginous Hawk in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jordan SouthMONTANA52021
IndianSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
Harland FlatWYOMING42017
HighlightWYOMING42007
NewcastleWYOMING42013
PowdervilleMONTANA32024
Coleman CouleeMONTANA32021
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA32022
GlenrockWYOMING31973
PineyWYOMING31989
Pine TreeWYOMING31995
KayceeWYOMING32022
WelchWYOMING32018
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING32016
HampshireWYOMING32022
BrusettMONTANA22017
ShawmutMONTANA22023
WebsterMONTANA21992
Miles CityMONTANA22021
Bull Mtn.MONTANA22016
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA22011
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA22015
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.