BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ferruginous Hawk In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Ferruginous Hawk in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+60%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ferruginous Hawk has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.37 (95% range 0.16–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.37 (95% range 0.16–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.150.57
20260.360.150.58
20270.370.150.58
20280.370.150.58
20290.370.160.59

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Ferruginous Hawk in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jordan SouthMONTANA52021
IndianSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
Harland FlatWYOMING42017
HighlightWYOMING42007
NewcastleWYOMING42013
PowdervilleMONTANA32024
Coleman CouleeMONTANA32021
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA32022
GlenrockWYOMING31973
PineyWYOMING31989
Pine TreeWYOMING31995
KayceeWYOMING32022
WelchWYOMING32018
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING32016
HampshireWYOMING32022
BrusettMONTANA22017
ShawmutMONTANA22023
WebsterMONTANA21992
Miles CityMONTANA22021
Bull Mtn.MONTANA22016
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA22011
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA22015
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.