BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Evening Grosbeak In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Evening Grosbeak in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+56%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Evening Grosbeak has risen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Evening Grosbeak In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.450.001.4
20270.450.001.4
20280.450.001.4
20290.450.001.4
20300.450.001.4

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Evening Grosbeak in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO182002
SummitvilleCOLORADO102015
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO92025
WarbonnetWYOMING92025
FlattopsCOLORADO82017
Groundhog RsCOLORADO82019
PowderhornCOLORADO82023
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO82025
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO82025
BufordWYOMING82018
CastletonCOLORADO72025
Rifle FallsCOLORADO72003
Main CanyonUTAH72002
Uintah NfUTAH61994
Wet Mtns.COLORADO51994
ParlinCOLORADO41988
Dolores RivCOLORADO42021
Pinos CreekCOLORADO41989
CokedaleCOLORADO42023
Marshall PasCOLORADO42011
GardnerCOLORADO42008
GallinasNEW-MEXICO42021
AltonUTAH41998
BrookhurstWYOMING41999
TsaileARIZONA31996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.