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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Evening Grosbeak In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Evening Grosbeak in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Evening Grosbeak has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2890.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2890.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2890.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.310.004.4
20240.260.004.4
20250.210.004.3
20260.160.004.3
20270.110.004.2

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Evening Grosbeak in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope FallsNEW-YORK181995
NorthfieldMAINE141981
WaiteMAINE101977
Forest StaMAINE92000
BaxterMAINE81984
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK71975
LudlowMAINE61998
BoundaryMAINE61997
GreenvilleMAINE51999
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE52000
Number FourNEW-YORK51995
DannemoraNEW-YORK52005
StrattonVERMONT51999
CooperMAINE42003
Moose RiverMAINE42008
Big TwentyMAINE42008
TelosMAINE42001
WanakenaNEW-YORK41993
SabattisNEW-YORK41968
GaysvilleVERMONT42009
WestbrookMAINE31993
Wilson MillsMAINE32007
South ArmMAINE31985
EastbrookMAINE31996
WinnMAINE31999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.