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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Evening Grosbeak In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Evening Grosbeak in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Evening Grosbeak has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Evening Grosbeak In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2890.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2890.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2890.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.310.004.4
20240.260.004.4
20250.210.004.3
20260.160.004.3
20270.110.004.2

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Evening Grosbeak in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope FallsNEW-YORK181995
NorthfieldMAINE141981
WaiteMAINE101977
Forest StaMAINE92000
BaxterMAINE81984
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK71975
LudlowMAINE61998
BoundaryMAINE61997
GreenvilleMAINE51999
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE52000
Number FourNEW-YORK51995
DannemoraNEW-YORK52005
StrattonVERMONT51999
CooperMAINE42003
Moose RiverMAINE42008
Big TwentyMAINE42008
TelosMAINE42001
WanakenaNEW-YORK41993
SabattisNEW-YORK41968
GaysvilleVERMONT42009
WestbrookMAINE31993
Wilson MillsMAINE32007
South ArmMAINE31985
EastbrookMAINE31996
WinnMAINE31999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.