BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Evening Grosbeak In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Evening Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Evening Grosbeak has collapsed in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±494.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±494.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±494.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.001.7
20260.180.001.7
20270.150.001.6
20280.120.001.6
20290.090.001.6

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Evening Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McnaughtonWISCONSIN252011
HermanMICHIGAN201997
GilchristMICHIGAN102001
Pine RiverMICHIGAN81993
MuskallongeMICHIGAN62009
Island LakeMINNESOTA61995
GlendaleMINNESOTA62010
Iron RiverWISCONSIN61995
FloodwoodMINNESOTA52002
BenaMINNESOTA51977
Popple RiverWISCONSIN52017
OntonagonMICHIGAN42014
Red OakMICHIGAN42011
LockportMINNESOTA42023
Crane LakeMINNESOTA42011
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA42024
HollisterWISCONSIN42000
BerglandMICHIGAN32018
Betchler LksMICHIGAN32008
BackusMINNESOTA31971
BigforkMINNESOTA31999
BootjackMICHIGAN22021
Ned LakeMICHIGAN22016
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN22015
CunardMICHIGAN22005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.