BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

European Starling in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+98%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 115% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 12–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+115%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 115% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 12–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025311150
2026311151
2027311251
2028321251
2029321252

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording European Starling in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grand IsleLOUISIANA2102019
JuniorLOUISIANA1091991
LafitteLOUISIANA1021991
MamouLOUISIANA691982
CreoleLOUISIANA481987
HackberryLOUISIANA312016
KatyTEXAS312024
Port AcresTEXAS292024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA282011
PetronilaTEXAS282024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS212024
IndianolaTEXAS202024
EstherLOUISIANA192024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA192024
DanburyTEXAS192024
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA181982
ChinquapinTEXAS162024
Moon LakeTEXAS162011
MauriceLOUISIANA152024
Vinton 2LOUISIANA142024
Moon Lake 2TEXAS142024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA132019
RichardLOUISIANA122024
Rock IslandTEXAS122024
BaysideTEXAS122010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.