BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

European Starling in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+112%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

European Starling In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 82% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 11–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±138%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 82% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 11–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026301050
2027301150
2028311150
2029311151
2030311151

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording European Starling in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grand IsleLOUISIANA2102019
JuniorLOUISIANA1091991
LafitteLOUISIANA1021991
KatyTEXAS832025
MamouLOUISIANA691982
CreoleLOUISIANA481987
DanburyTEXAS472025
HackberryLOUISIANA312016
Lag AtascosaTEXAS312025
Rock IslandTEXAS292025
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA282011
EstherLOUISIANA262025
IndianolaTEXAS202024
Forked IslandLOUISIANA192025
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA181982
Bayside 3TEXAS182025
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA172025
RichardLOUISIANA162025
Moon LakeTEXAS162011
MauriceLOUISIANA152024
StowellTEXAS152025
Port AcresTEXAS142025
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA132019
ChinquapinTEXAS122025
BaysideTEXAS122010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.